Published on
April 7, 2025
By
Nick Halliday
As a key supplier to industry, PTL stays close to industry data and its emerging trends, and as part of this initiative PTL CEO Nick Halliday recently attended the NCA State of the Industry Conference in Florida. This conference, and the insights it provides, are hugely valuable for machinery suppliers and producers alike, ensuring that we're staying informed, up-to-date, and ahead of the market.
In a year marked by economic uncertainty, taking time to understand how the industry is performing and where it is heading is critical. The data on emerging and evolving trends within the candy industry shows a consistently resilient market, but one that is changing in its structure and buying patterns. From this data, PTL have identified the following trends that will fundamentally affect the industry in the next 5years:
Consumer buying habits have been affected by a rise in grocery prices over the last 5years, however the dollar value of confectionary sales continues to increase. In the US, confectionery sales are a $54.2 Billion dollar industry, with chocolate representing 51.9% of sales, while non-chocolate candy and gum constitute 40.0% and 8.1% of the market respectively.
While the dollar value of confectionery sales is increasing, the overall volume and unit sales are decreasing. This is due in part to inflation; however this trend is also affected by cocoa supply, and a change in consumer buying patterns, outlined below. The growth of private label products is encouraging, with a 10% increase in the last year, and along with strong growth in non-chocolate confectionery, the industry is forecast to grow from $54.2billion in 2024 to $70.4 billion in 2029.
Seasonal confectionery sales remain strong, with winter holidays and Halloween the largest buying seasons. Overall, it was the four big seasons (Valentines Day, Easter, Halloween and Winter Holidays) that represented 62.3% of confectionery sales in 2024.
We are seeing consistent and fundamental changes in consumer buying patterns across all confectionery types. Buyers limiting their sugar intake, and a move to less processed foods are both notable reasons for lower candy consumption. These buying decisions are representative of the wider ‘Make America Healthy Again' movement, with an increase in buyers choosing better-for-you products, and vegan or low sugar offerings. Consumers- particularly Gen Z and millennials - are less engaged with chocolate, however there has been strong growth of confectionery purchases through e-commerce channels, and social media has played an important role in the buying decisions of modern consumers.
These buying habits are driving a change in the type of products being produced by confectionery suppliers, with ingredient choices by producers reflecting the shift in demand from consumers.
Reduced or costly cocoa supply has been an ongoing challenge for confectionery producers recently. While there has been a large focus on increasing cocoa planting globally, it will be approximately 5years before the benefits are seen from this initiative. The typical cocoa supplier region of WestAfrica relies on buoyant cocoa pricing for this investment, however the industry is now seeing Ecuador grow in significance through its own high rate of investment.
There is a consensus in industry that this will be a strong season for cocoa growers, which should see some relief in cocoa price and supply. Regardless, we have seen producers explore alternative chocolate and ingredient options to lessen the exposure of suppliers to the volatilities of the cocoa market.
TheNCA State of the Industry Conference was a fantastic opportunity to review the industry and ensure we remain at the forefront of emerging trends, both in the current market, and for the changing markets of the future. If you would like to speak to PTL on how we can help you stay ahead of the market and reduce risk to your production, contact us on https://www.ptlmachinery.com/contact
With thanks to the National Confectioners Association; please visit https://candyusa.com/state-of-treating-2025/ for their comprehensive report on the state of the industry.
